2 edition of Guarding against large policy errors under model uncertainty found in the catalog.
Guarding against large policy errors under model uncertainty
|Statement||by Gino Cateau.|
|Series||Bank of Canada working paper -- 2006-13, Working paper (Bank of Canada) -- 2006-13.|
|Contributions||Bank of Canada.|
|The Physical Object|
|Pagination||v, 55 p. ;|
|Number of Pages||55|
This chapter considers only measurement uncertainty. The claim is often made that field samp-ling uncertainties are so large that they dwarf laboratory measurement uncertainties. Although the claim may be true in some cases, MARLAP rejects this argument as an excuse for failing to per-form a full evaluation of the measurement uncertainty. The analysis of a complex decision situation by constructing a mathematical model of the situation and then performing a large number of iterations in order to determine the probability distribution of outcomes is called. Which of the following is a way to deal with decision making under uncertainty? a. Simulation b. Diversification.
Dennis, Dennis,, several sources of uncertainty can disturb the macroeconomic policy rules: exogenous shocks, parameter uncertainty, model misspecification (Brainard, ; Poole, In software development, effort estimation is the process of predicting the most realistic amount of effort (expressed in terms of person-hours or money) required to develop or maintain software based on incomplete, uncertain and noisy input. Effort estimates may be used as input to project plans, iteration plans, budgets, investment analyses, pricing processes and bidding rounds.
According to Aven and Zio (), model uncertainty is to be interpreted as uncertainty about the model error, defined by g(x) − y, where y is the quantity we would like to assess and g(x) is a model of y having some parameters x. Different approaches for assessing this uncertainty can then be used, including subjective probabilities. Model risk is a type of risk that occurs when a financial model used to measure a firm's market risks or value transactions fails or performs inadequately.
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Get this from a library. Guarding against large policy errors under model uncertainty. [Gino Cateau; Bank of Canada.] -- How can policy-makers avoid large policy errors when they are uncertain about the true model of the economy. The author discusses some recent approaches that can be used for that purpose under two.
Downloadable. How can policy-makers avoid large policy errors when they are uncertain about the true model of the economy.
The author discusses some recent approaches that can Guarding against large policy errors under model uncertainty book used for that purpose under two alternative scenarios: (i) the policy-maker has one reference model for choosing policy but cannot take a stand as to how that model is misspecified, and (ii) the policy-maker, being.
Guarding Against Large Policy Errors under Model Uncertainty. Staff Working Paper the policy-maker has one reference model for choosing policy but cannot take a stand as to how that model is misspecified, and Uncertainty and monetary policy.
JEL Code(s): Cited by: 6. Get this from a library. Guarding against large policy errors under model uncertainty. [Gino Cateau; Bank of Canada.]. "Guarding Against Large Policy Errors under Model Uncertainty," Staff Working PapersBank of Canada.
Soderlind, Paul, " Solution and estimation of RE macromodels with optimal policy," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol.
43(), pagesApril. Some Remarks on Policy Making under Model Uncertainty. CIRANO - Scientific Publications Forthcoming.
22 Pages Posted: 23 Mar Last revised: 22 Mar See all articles by Pauline M. Barrieu Pauline M. Barrieu. London School of Economics & Political Science (LSE) Bernard Sinclair-Desgagne.
Some may be surprised that I have separated uncertainty from risk, but uncertainty has always been a major feature of children's services, whereas risk is a more recent entrant, beginning to appear in the literature in the s.
The terms are not synonymous. Crucially, they function differently in. Policy-making under uncertainty RORY SUTHERLAND Ogilvy London, London, UK and Ogilvy Change, London, UK Abstract: The problem with decision-making in an institutional setting is that it is often more important for one’s reputation and job security to appear to be logical than it is to be truly effective.
Indeed, a far lower burden. An uncertainty analysis was undertaken to quantify the uncertainty associated with the additional losses incurred by rerouting water to achieve environmental benefits along the Campaspe River (Lowe et al., b).The analysis considered uncertainty due to measurement of streamflow, and the metering or estimation of water extractions.
The total expected monthly losses are shown using a boxplot. policy design to work well under alternative descriptions (models) of the economy and thus be robust to model uncertainty.
Guarding against model uncertainty has been a central topic in monetary policy for a long time, dating at least back to Friedman () and his book A Program for Monetary Stability.
Kingdom Accreditation Service (UKAS) Publication M‘The Expression of Uncertainty and Confidence in Measurement’, and the Publication EA-4/02 of the European co-operation for Accreditation (EA), ‘Expression of the Uncertainty in Measurement and Calibration’.
Many people are daunted by the subject of measurement uncertainty. 4 USES OF UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS (I) • Assess experimental procedure including identification of potential difficulties – Definition of necessary steps – Gaps • Advise what procedures need to be put in place for measurement • Identify instruments and procedures that control accuracy and precision – Usually one, or at most a small number, out of the large set of.
Rodrik, Policy uncertainty and private investment stance, there have been sharp, unpredicted changes in certain areas of policy - fiscal stance and trade policy in the former, trade and exchange-rate policies in the latter.
The prevalence of uncertainty of this sort creates an important dilemma. The absolute uncertainty is the actual numerical uncertainty, the percentage uncertainty is the absolute uncertainty as a fraction of the value itself. Consider our previous example: Voltage = ± The quantity = V Absolute uncertainty = V (it has units) Percentage uncertainty = / = = % (no units as its a ratio).
model uncertainty can have important implications for policy. In particular, uncertainty about the model may make monetary authorities more conservative in the sense that they determine the appropriate policy response ignoring uncertainty, ‘and then do less’.
This conservative approach to policy was first formalised by Brainard (). This paper argues that the IPCC has oversimplified the issue of uncertainty in its Assessment Reports, which can lead to misleading overconfidence.
A concerted effort by the IPCC is needed to identify better ways of framing the climate change problem, explore and characterize uncertainty, reason about uncertainty in the context of evidence-based logical hierarchies, and. uncertainty in the measurement. If you take several measurements of something, you will get a range of values.
The ‘real’ value should be within this range, and the uncertainty is determined by dividing the range of values by two. Always round your stated uncertainty up to match the number of decimal places of your measurement, if necessary.
Reproducibility is simply the precision determined under conditions where the same methods but different equipment are used by different operator to make measurements on identical specimens. Uncertainty Uncertainty is the component of a reported value that characterizes the range of values within which the true value is asserted to lie.
how model uncertainty with respect to monetary policy a ects the term premium on nominal bond yields. Kleshchelski and Vincent () present an equilibrium model of the term structure in a robust control setting where consumption growth exhibits stochastic volatility.
They show that, if. Formal models have a long and important history in the study of human decision-making. They have served as normative standards against which to compare real choices, as well as precise descriptions of actual choice behavior.
This chapter begins with an overview of the historical development of decision theory and rational choice theory and then reviews how models have been used in their. hydroxide solution, that has been standardised against a solution of potassium hydrogen phthalate (KHP).
• Errors are present even when the method has been carried out correctly and you have worked carefully. Typical uncertainty estimates are shown in the table below. * Uncertainty expressed as a % = Uncertainty x Value.An uncertainty analysis is additionally useful to weigh the benefits against the costs of alternative remedial actions.
The primary objective of this report is to address the issue of uncertainty .Articles Uncertainty and Public Policy Richard Taylor tells us why public policies always go wrong. Werner Heisenberg’s uncertainty principle, to my layman’s understanding, says that the position and momentum of a particle, such as an electron, can never both be known with complete accuracy at the same instant, because any attempt to ascertain either one necessarily alters the other.